Yorked!!! – By Chetan Narula.

Onto the World Stage: Australia – The “Beatable” Champions.

It wasn’t surprising that Australia won the world cup in 1999, given the resolve that they showed to win the tournament. Neither was it surprising that they won in 2003, given that they were the best team on view and steam rolled every one into submission. It’s just that it would be very surprising if they won in 2007.

No I am not talking through my hat. But before I give you my reasons for it, let us take a look at the team participating in the world cup: Ricky Ponting (capt), Adam Gilchrist (wk), Nathan Bracken, Michael Clarke, Brad Haddin (wk), Matthew Hayden, Brad Hodge, Brad Hogg, Michael Hussey, Mitchell Johnson, Stuart Clark, Glenn McGrath, Andrew Symonds, Shaun Tait, Shane Watson. When you start reading the names, your very bones will quiver if you are a bowler, but if you are a batsman, you will fancy your chances.

Still think I am crazy? Well to bring down a team of Australia’s caliber, I need some statistics. And that is exactly what’s on the menu. After their world cup victory in 2003, the Aussies have played 117 ODIs in the past four years. Out of these, they have lost 28 and tied 1. However, this still means that they have won 75 percent of their matches. But its in the manner that they have lost these 28 matches is what tells you about the chink in the armory of the Australians for the first time in decades. We shall dissect the losses now.

17 matches have been lost when the Kangaroos have tried defending their totals. That’s like 60 percent. Even the tied match against England was the one where they were defending 197. We go way back in 2003/04 to their Sri Lankan tour, to find that their nine consecutive defeats were all batting first. Further more, except for one instance, the Aussies had scored 220+ in all those games. In that particular streak, they also lost to New Zealand when the kiwis chased a then world record of 331. Also, they have failed to defend 300+ four times, including the mammoth 434 in South Africa.

What’s more disturbing is the fact that out of these 17 losses, nine have come in the last one year. And all those four heavy defeats are included in these nine losses. This clearly points out one glaring fallacy in this Australian side. They simply can’t defend their scores. Which in turn, is attributed to their poor bowling attack. Yes, we have come to that point in Australian cricketing history which will be known as the post Warne/McGrath era. The one in which they will be dependent on their batting to bail them out in most of the situations.

I mean look at their team sheet. Barring McGrath, you don’t see one name capable enough to carry the burden of defending targets. Brett Lee is out injured, which is going to be a very big blow to them. Because with him missing the action, they can only be assured of ten good overs from the Pigeon. About the rest we know what can happen to them. We saw South Africa, then England and lately New Zealand do it to them. Under pressure they have caved in again and again. I mean Tait and Mitchell Johnson don’t have the experience, Brad Hogg isn’t exactly Warne or even Stuart Macgill, for that matter. The Aussies are really missing some one to hold out the middle overs and with Symonds’ fitness in doubt, there is cause for concern. Bracken did I hear you say? Well he’s been around for a while but his presence doesn’t exactly cause oppositions to lose their sleep.

And so we come to the strong point of the team. Their batting. The indomitable Hayden, the swashbuckling Gilchrist, the mercurial Ponting, the dependable Hussey, the determined Michael Clarke and the burly Symonds. Enough to make any opposition wet their pants. The fact that Ponting himself stated that they would like to chase rather than defend, tells you that this is one captain who knows his strengths and weaknesses well. Plus you could argue that the team that played in New Zealand wasn’t a strong Aussie side. Let me make this very clear that six out of those 11 players will start the first match against Scotland on 14th March.

Injuries are something which could really upset the Aussie applecart. Symonds is still weak in the arm, Hayden is under fitness clouds too. They have already lost Lee a week before departure. Any more injuries and Ponting might feel like throwing in the towel. The most important factor however is going to be Andrew Symonds. He is the one who gives them the balance. Ten overs and a reliable bat who knows how to accustom himself to the situation. Plus he is no slouch in the field either. If he stays fit, the team has it in them to do well. Without him, they are a touch lost.

Adam Gilchrist is in his last world cup probably. So is Hayden and McGrath has already announced his retirement. After these three go, the future for Australia is somewhat uncertain. But right now, their concentration has to be on the cup. A hat trick of victories will do them immense good and prepare the young lot for the challenges ahead too.

The one point that can go against my arguments is that they have won around 46 matches batting first. That is a 72 percent success rate. But quite a few of those matches were a couple of years back. The recent trend is worrisome. And just for that reason, this world cup is the most open ever.

My verdict: If you are the opposition, win the toss & ask them to bat. Sooner or later, they will falter.